A reference-safety layer for prediction-market prices. Built to help humans and AI systems decide how market prices should be referenced, contextualized, reviewed, or withheld from standalone use.
"Not every market price should stand on its own."
Strata - core premise
The problem
Prediction market prices are easy to surface and easy to over-read. The same number can sit on top of very different sourcing conditions, and those conditions matter when a price appears in a dashboard, report, generated answer, or public summary.
Strata exists to make the handling posture more legible. It helps users distinguish between prices that can be referenced normally, prices that require context, prices that warrant secondary review, and prices that should not appear alone.
The key question is not "will this happen?" It is "how should this price be handled downstream?"
What Strata helps with
Strata adds reference-safety status, compact reason tags, and handling guidance to the public market surface. The labels are designed for scanning by humans and for simple routing by AI agents or product integrations.
Important distinction. Reference safety is not the same thing as outcome prediction. A market price can be usable, contextual, or restricted without saying whether the outcome will resolve.
What Strata is and is not
Strata is
A reference-safety layer
A public handling guide for market prices
A compact routing surface for AI and dashboards
A way to keep context attached to sensitive prices
Strata is not
An outcome prediction engine
A trading or betting signal
A financial advisory product
A guarantee of market truth
Why this matters
When market prices move across tools, they are often stripped of the context that makes them understandable. Strata is meant to keep that handling layer visible before a number is reused.
A price and a responsible downstream reference are related, but they are not the same thing. This docs hub explains that difference in plain language.
02 - Dashboard
Reading Reference Status
Each tracked market is shown through a reference-safety status. These labels describe downstream handling, not outcome probability.
The public reference statuses
Ready
Standard source attribution is enough
The current price can be referenced with normal source attribution on the public surface. This is a handling status, not a claim that the market is correct.
Ready does not mean the implied outcome will happen or that the odds are validated.
It means standard attribution is enough for ordinary reference use.
Markets can move out of this status as public conditions change.
Context Required
Do not separate the price from its context
The price may appear only when the relevant option, wording, timing, threshold, or resolution detail is carried with it. Context Required is its own handling status, not a secondary tag on Ready.
Context Required is not a warning that the market is wrong.
It means the price should not be surfaced without the accompanying context.
AI integrations should carry the selected-outcome question, reason chips, and suggested framing with the price.
Review Recommended
Secondary review is advised
The market has conditions that warrant additional scrutiny before the price is reused downstream. Strata is flagging the handling posture, not assigning a reviewer.
Review Recommended does not mean the price is false.
It means autonomous or standalone reuse should be treated carefully.
High prices can still receive this status.
Not Standalone
Do not present the price by itself
The price should not appear as an isolated reference. Substantial additional context is required if the market is discussed at all.
This is a downstream-use restriction, not a market ban.
The status helps prevent stripped or misleading use of a headline price.
Agents should not output the price as a standalone figure.
How to use the labels
Status and outcome are separate
A market can point strongly in one direction and still require context or review. The status describes downstream handling, not which side will resolve.
Status is current
These labels describe the current public surface. They should be read as time-sensitive guidance, not permanent tags.
Ready is not approval
Ready is a reference-handling step. It is not a guarantee about the market outcome or the odds.
Keep the priced option visible
A generic title such as "2026 NBA Champion" is incomplete by itself. A reusable line should keep the selected option attached, for example "New York Knicks to win the 2026 NBA Finals at 36%."
03 - Dashboard
Reading the Snapshot Panel
The top panel summarizes the public surface at a glance. Think of it as a compact reading aid for the current dashboard view.
Panel fields
Field
What it means on the public surface
Markets tracked
The number of markets currently represented on the dashboard.
Tracked snapshots
The total number of recent snapshots currently contributing to the dashboard view.
Avg snapshots
The average number of snapshots currently informing each market on the dashboard.
Evaluated markets
The number of markets that have already received a public reference-safety assessment.
State distribution
The reference-safety summary below the hero panel shows how the current public sample is distributed across all four handling statuses: Ready, Context Required, Review Recommended, and Not Standalone. Each status maps to a concrete next action.
Status indicators
Current
The public surface is available and appears current.
Delayed
The public surface is reachable, but some displayed information may be lagging.
Partial
Some pieces of the public surface are unavailable or incomplete.
Unavailable
The public data view cannot currently be displayed.
How to use this panel. Treat the snapshot panel as context for reading the surface. It helps users understand what they are seeing without reducing the dashboard to a single number.
04 - Interpretation
How to Think About the Surface
This section explains the public reference-safety goal behind Strata and how to approach the dashboard with the right posture.
The public interpretation goal
Strata is meant to help users separate two questions that often get blurred together: what direction the market points and whether the current price can be responsibly reused downstream.
Those are related questions, but they are not the same. This docs page exists to make that distinction clearer for anyone reading the public dashboard.
"The public surface is there to guide responsible reference, not to turn a price into a promise."
Strata - interpretation principle
What can move a status
The public status is shaped by whether the price can survive reuse without losing important public context. Strata looks for handling risks such as missing selected-option text, ambiguous wording, threshold definitions, timing, resolution-source mechanics, disclosure or oracle review states, public-health reporting context, geopolitical sensitivity, and belief-contamination risk.
These checks are public reference-routing inputs. They are not a claim about market accuracy, outcome likelihood, or trading use.
What the routing means
Ready is the narrow case
A Ready price can be referenced with source and as-of context because the reusable line carries enough public context for ordinary citation.
Context Required preserves the missing piece
This status means the option, threshold, timing, wording, or resolution detail should travel beside the price.
Review Recommended catches contaminated reads
This status asks the user to inspect whether confirmation timing, rule interpretation, oracle review, sensitivity, or event semantics are shaping the apparent public-belief read.
Not Standalone blocks stripped reuse
This status does not ban discussion of the market. It says the number should not be reused as an isolated reference.
Useful ways to read the surface
Read the status before the number
The reference status provides the handling posture. A price by itself can look more reusable than the surrounding surface supports.
Keep context with the price
When Context Required appears, the relevant context should travel with the price in generated, displayed, or exported output.
Keep reference safety and correctness separate
A price can be ready, contextual, or restricted without answering whether the market will resolve in the expected direction.
Prefer handling guidance over overreach
The public surface is designed to help users handle market prices carefully. It should not be treated as a substitute for judgment.
Best use of this page. Read it as a guide to interpreting the dashboard, then return to the live surface with that frame in mind.
05 - FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Direct answers to common questions about the public surface.
No. Strata is designed to help interpret the public market surface, not to predict which outcome will resolve.
No. The public surface is informational only. It does not recommend trades, positions, wagers, or investments.
No. Ready means the price can be referenced with standard attribution on the current public surface. It is not an outcome forecast or odds validation.
Use them as a simple signal for whether the public surface looks current, delayed, partial, or unavailable.
No. The public dashboard is designed to be readable without sign-in.